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Thursday, March 10, 2011

The Little Book of Currency Trading: How to Make Big Profits in the World of Forex (Little Books. Big Profits)

An accessible guide to trading the fast-moving foreign exchange market

The foreign exchange market, or forex, was once dominated by global banks, hedge funds, and multinational corporations, but that has all changed with Internet technology and the advent of online forex brokers. Now, hundreds of thousands of traders and investors around the world can participate in this profitable field.

Written by forex expert Kathy Lien, The Little Book of Currency Trading will show you how to effectively invest and trade in today's biggest market. Page by page, she describes the multitude of opportunities possible in the forex market, from short-term price swings to long-term trends, and details practical products that can help you achieve success, such as currency-based ETFs.

  • Explains the forces that drive currencies and provides strategies to profit from them
  • Reveals how you can use various currencies to reduce risk and take advantage of global trends
  • Examines financial vehicles that can help you make money without having to monitor the market every day

The Little Book of Currency Trading opens the world of currency trading and investing to anyone interested in entering this dynamic arena.

Q&A with Author Kathy Lien

Author Kathy Lien
What is the most effective way for investors to make money in the currency market?
The best way to make money in the currency market is to think of it as an investment. When most people see advertisements by forex brokers, their eyes start to widen on the offers of high leverage and the possibility of tremendous returns. It is attractive and almost irresistible. However, even though currencies can provide attractive returns, leverage is a sharp double-edged sword. High returns come with high risks, which can be suitable for some but not all investors. Currencies are a great asset class for people looking to diversify their portfolios. And throughout the year, currency values can increase or decrease anywhere between 5 to 25 percent. With U.S. Treasuries yielding next to nothing and our bank accounts earning only a few cents on the dollar, most of us would be satisfied with 5 percent, let alone 25 percent return. There is no need to use excessive leverage - taking it slow and easy increases the chance of seeing your account grow.

Over the past 10 years, the forex market has evolved significantly and competition has brought many benefits to new forex traders. Most forex brokers will offer free education and practice accounts, and new traders should take advantage of them because the most effective way of making money in the currency market is learning how the market works and to practice, practice, practice before dumping significant capital into a live account.

From a more practical perspective, there is no need for monogamy when it comes to trading currencies. Take the best of both worlds and combine both fundamental and technical analysis. The Little Book of Currency Trading will teach you how to identify the big stories affecting currencies and how to pinpoint places to enter and exit your trades. You may know more about currencies than you actually think. If you have ever traveled to another country or if you love to read about political or economic developments abroad, then you have already gotten a taste of what moves currencies. Start by trading what you know, and at the onset, bank your profits when you have them to build your confidence and your knowledge of how the currency market moves.

What indicators or economic data should investors monitor to identify a potential profit opportunity in the currency market?
News moves the markets and economic data is a consistent event risk that can provide daily trading opportunities by driving meaningful moves in a currency. However not all economic releases are equally important, and it is essential to be able to delineate between what will and will not move the currency. As a rule of thumb, put yourself into the shoes of a central bank -- whatever the central bank watches is typically what can move the currency because it can help determine whether the central bank will raise or lower interest rates. This includes employment, retail sales and inflation reports. The best trades are the ones that are also aligned with the current prevailing trend and sentiment in the foreign exchange, something that the Little Book will teach you how to do.

What is the learning process for an individual investor -- who already has experience trading stocks -- in the currency market?
Trade what you know. If you trade stocks using technical analysis, you can do the same in the currency market. In fact, technical analysis is one of the most popular ways to analyze currencies. It will be important to learn about the unique characteristics of the market, including round the clock trading and general trading mechanics. But after that, you can use Fibonacci retracements the same way you do in equities in currencies. For traders who love to follow developments in Europe or Asia -- once again, trade what you know. If you travel to London often and have a good idea of how the U.K. economy is doing, your outlook can be translated into a currency trade. The same is true for traders who have an opinion on whether the Eurozone will go bust due to their debt crisis. Currencies just offer another vehicle to express the views that as stock traders, you may already have.

Historically, the currency market often produces long-term trends that provide a great opportunity for profit. Do you think that will continue in the years ahead?
Currencies have been around for hundreds of years in one form or another and are little confidence measures of a country. If you believe that business cycles repeat themselves -- with expansion followed by contraction and contraction followed by expansion -- then the long term trends of currencies will continue to be evident because the optimism or pessimism of investors usually follows the business cycles of each country. The reason why currencies have had such strong trends in the past few decades is because in general, the outlook for a country gets progressively better or worse, and this dynamic is reflected in the value of the currency. Using a unique easy to understand tool, the Little Book will show you unique ways to join the trend and minimize the risk of chasing a move that quickly fades.

Price: $19.95


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Profiting With Forex: The Most Effective Tools and Techniques for Trading Currencies

Profiting With Forex: The  Most Effective Tools and Techniques for Trading Currencies

Profiting with Forex introduces investors to all the advantages of the global foreign exchange market and shows them how to capitalize on it. Readers will learn why forex is the perfect supplement to stock and bond investing; why it is unrivaled in terms of protection, profit potential, and ease of use; and how it can generate profits, whether the other markets are up of down.

Written by two leading forex experts, this complete investing resource uses basic economic principles, solid technical analysis, and lots of common sense to develop an arsenal of tools and techniques that will lead to winning results in the lucrative foreign exchange marketplace. Profiting with Forex includes everything that investors need to know about:

  • The many advantages of the forex market: huge market size, ease of entry, profit potential, tax incentives, 24-hour trading, no commissions, increased leverage, and guaranteed stops
  • The basic terms of forex trading: definitions of important concepts, including "pip," "currency pair," "contract" or "lot," and more
  • Genesis and growth of the forex market: how the forex market emerged out of a changing global financial landscape and continues to changes and adapt with that same volatile landscape
  • Fundamental factors that shape the Forex market: the U.S. government, inflation, the U.S. stock market, China and other emerging markets, oil, and breaking news
  • Fundamental tools for tracking Forex market changes: interest rates, Treasury International Capital Data, Consumer Price Index, S&P 500, U.S. dollar vs. Chinese yuan, balance of trade, crude oil futures, and news media
  • Technical analysis tools and indicators for gauging market sentiment: moving averages, oscillating indicators such as, stochastics, Commodity Channel Index, Relative Strength Index, Fibonacci analysis, and others

    Filled with over 150 illustrations and figures, Profiting with Forex also shows investors how to combine their newly acquired knowledge of Forex fundamentals with proven trading techniques that can generate great rewards in the market.

    Price: $55.00


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  • The 10 Essentials of Forex Trading: The Rules for Turning Trading Patterns Into Profit

    The 10 Essentials of Forex Trading: The Rules for Turning Trading Patterns Into Profit

    Trading the Forex Market can be exciting, adventurous, and financially rewarding. It can also be disastrous for those who are unprepared for its rhythms and movements.

    Now, Jared F. Martinez, one of the foremost experts in currency trading, draws upon his vast knowledge and experience to deliver 10 key practices for trading in Forex. The 10 Essentials of Forex Trading shows you how to use charting methods to effectively relate market movements to trading patterns-and turn those patterns into profit.

    No matter your level of trading experience, you can develop the skills you need to become a consistently successful foreign currency trader-from using the right trading tools and balancing equity management to trading in buy and sell zones and identifying trends and trendlines. You'll discover what drives the Forex market and how to navigate the three stages of Forex trading: acquiring new trading rules, controlling disciplined thought, and implementing disciplined action.

    Martinez also prepares you to:

    • Understand the financial game of support and resistance between Bulls & Bears
    • Use Japanese Candlesticks to discern the sign language of the market
    • Create an entry strategy and a consistent exit strategy
    • Use Fibonacci as part of your trading approach
    • Forecast sideways movement in the market-and trade it

    Martinez shows you how to put it all together to execute a successful trade by finding convergence and analyzing the market on multiple timeframes. You'll also learn how to gain control over your emotions-a vital part of trading on Forex-and eliminate bad habits that can prevent you from becoming a confident, competent, and profitable trader.

    To trade the Forex market, you must come to the trading table prepared. The 10 Essentials of Forex Trading arms you with the tools to develop a solid personal trading constitution and reap the financial outcome you desire.

    Price: $34.95


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    The Forex Options Course: A Self-Study Guide to Trading Currency Options (Wiley Trading)

    The Forex Options Course: A Self-Study Guide to Trading Currency Options (Wiley Trading)The Forex Options Course is a practical, hands-on guide to understanding and trading forex options. Designed to build a trader's knowledge base in a step-by-step manner, this reliable resource moves from the straightforward to the more sophisticated with discussions of everything from basic plain vanilla calls and puts to intriguing first-generation exotic binary options. Written in a straightforward and accessible style, The Forex Options Course will help you develop the skills and strategies needed to succeed in today's dynamic forex market.

    Price: $60.00


    Click here to buy from Amazon

    Wednesday, March 9, 2011

    Mastering the Currency Market: Forex Strategies for High and Low Volatility Markets

    Mastering the Currency Market: Forex Strategies for High and Low Volatility Markets

    Make Volatility and Risk Work for You with Forex Trading!

    “This book should be in every trader/investor’s library. As we come out of this depressed market . . . this book can be your companion, helping you avoid mistakes and enhance your trading/investment program.”
    —Bill M. Williams, author of Trading Chaos

    “Whether you’re just getting started trading the world’s most exciting financial market, or you’re looking to add to your trading edge, [the authors] have written an engaging book packed with powerful techniques that you can use right now.”
    —Rob Booker, trader, author, educator, and founder and host of TraderRadio.net

    The foreign exchange market is the largest trading market in the world, with average daily volume well into the trillions. Because the market is always characterized by high liquidity, forex traders benefit most from volatile markets—making it the ideal investment approach today and well into the future.

    Mastering the Currency Market is a comprehensive guide to currency and futures trading strategies and techniques for both highly volatile and nonvolatile markets.

    Putting to work their vast and highly diverse experience in forex trading, the authors explain how to take advantage of the many benefits of foreign exchange trading, including its low cost of entry afforded by margin, and the dynamic pricing by nature of the competitive marketplace. Mastering the Currency Market is divided into five sections covering:

    • The basics of trading currencies
    • Fundamental analysis of price valuation
    • Technical analysis and trading charts
    • Trading philosophy and psychological discipline
    • Volatility and risk management

    With four decades of combined experience, the authors clearly communicate to you a trading method that will give you the confidence to both analyze markets and execute trades successfully, regardless of underlying market conditions.

    As 2008 introduced nightmare scenarios for investors around the world, it was Al Gaskill’s most productive period of his trading career. He used the same trading methods spelled out in this book.

    Apply the lessons inside and you’ll see profits rise during periods of high market volatility, and when the market slows down, you can downshift to countertrending methods. It’s a win-win investing method, and Mastering the Currency Market leads you through it every step of the way.

    Price: $34.95


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    The FX Bootcamp Guide to Strategic and Tactical Forex Trading (Wiley Trading)

    The FX Bootcamp Guide to Strategic and Tactical Forex Trading (Wiley Trading)A straightforward guide to trading today's dynamic Forex market

    Written by Wayne McDonell, the Chief Currency Coach at FX Bootcamp, this book shows readers how to successfully trade the Forex market on their own. FX Bootcamp's Guide to Strategic and Tactical Forex Trading skillfully explains how to combine popular technical indicators to formulate a comprehensive market strategy. Readers will then learn how to focus on using this information to create a tactical trading plan--one that will help them pull the trigger to get in and out of a trade. Along the way, McDonell takes the time to discuss the various challenges a Forex trader faces, such as greed, fear, loss, and isolation. As a Forex trader and educator of traders, Wayne McDonell knows what it takes to make it in the competitive world of Forex. And with FX Bootcamp's Guide to Strategic and Tactical Forex Trading he shows readers how.

    Price: $70.00


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    The Ed Ponsi Forex Playbook: Strategies and Trade Set-Ups (Wiley Trading)

    The Ed Ponsi Forex Playbook: Strategies and Trade Set-Ups (Wiley Trading)A practical guide to trading the foreign exchange market

    The Ed Ponsi Forex Playbook offers a visual approach to learning specific trading strategies and identifying profitable trading opportunities in the Forex arena. Page by page, it skillfully describes strategies for long-term trading, swing trading, and day trading in a clear, easy-to-understand manner.

    Written by the author of the hugely successful Forex Patterns and Probabilities, The Ed Ponsi Forex Playbook takes the entire concept of Forex education to a new level. The author raises the bar with this ambitious work, presenting fresh new strategies and concepts. Ponsi uses clever analogies and comparisons to make his explanations crystal clear.

    • With Ponsi as your "coach", the book employs sports analogies to show you, his players, the way to victory on the Forex playing field
    • Strips away the mystery, showing exactly how successful Forex traders make money
    • Explains complex financial concepts in ways that the average person can understand
    • Provides not only useful information, but actionable information to the Forex trader

    The foreign exchange market is the most actively traded market in the world, and Ed Ponsi is world-renowned as one of the foremost educators in this field. With The Ed Ponsi Forex Playbook as your guide, you'll learn how to take advantage of the many opportunities found in the Forex arena.

    Price: $70.00


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    Selective Forex Trading: How to Achieve Over 100 Trades in a Row Without a Loss (Wiley Trading)

    Selective Forex Trading: How to Achieve Over 100 Trades in a Row Without a Loss (Wiley Trading)Selective Forex Trading skillfully outlines author Don Snellgrove’s S90/Crossover: an independently verified technical indicator that has provided traders with the ability to achieve over 100 consecutive Forex trades without a single loss. Whether you’re a seasoned professional or just getting started, this approach—which is based on historical resistance and support points within a trading range—can assist you in entering and exiting positions for the greatest profits possible.

    Price: $85.00


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    EUR/GBP – Potential Bearish Flag And ABCD Pattern

    FX Solutions

    IMPORTANT NOTICE: These comments are for information purposes only. Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results. Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and Foreign Exchange involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time. The information contained on this email does not constitute a solicitation to buy or sell by FX Solutions,LLC., and/or its affiliates, and is not to be available to individuals in a jurisdiction where such availability would be contrary to local regulation or law.

    (Chart courtesy of FX Solutions' FX AccuCharts. Price on 1st pane, Slow Stochastics on 2nd pane; uptrend lines in green; downtrend lines in red; horizontal support/resistance lines in yellow; 200-period simple moving average in light blue.)


    View the original article here

    EURGBP: Strength Builds Towards The 0.8671 Level

    Daily Forex Technicals | Written by FXTechstrategy | Mar 07 11 18:23 GMT

    EURGBP- With a follow through higher on the back of its last week gains now underway, further upside momentum is likely in the days ahead. As long as the 0.8592 level continues to hold as support, EURGBP’s rally started from the 0.8354 level should recapture the 0.8671 level. A break of this level will open the door for a run at its Nov 08’10 high at 0.8690 and subsequently, the 0.8816 level. Its daily and weekly studies are bullish and pointing higher supporting this view. On the other hand, on a failure to break and hold above the 0.8671 level, risk of a decline back towards the 0.8592 level is likely to occur. This level is expected to reverse roles and provide support, but if it fails, its Jan 18’2011 low at 0.8332 will be targeted ahead the 0.8284 level, its 2011 low. All in all, having triggered a recovery higher, further upside risk is likely.

     

    Mohammed Isah
    Market Analyst
    http://www.fxtechstrategy.com/

    This report is prepared solely for information and data purposes. Opinions, estimates and projections contained herein are the author's own as of the date hereof and are subject to change without notice. The information and opinions contained herein have been compiled or arrived at from sources believed to be reliable but no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to their accuracy or completeness and neither the information nor the forecast shall be taken as a representation for which the author incur any responsibility. The does not accept any liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of this report or its contents. This report is not construed as an offer to sell or solicitation of any offer to buy any of the currencies referred to in this report


    View the original article here

    Forex Exchange Morning Report

    The previous day's risk aversion theme continued, with Libya and oil continuing to frighten investors. The S&P500 is down 1.1%, looking vulnerable. WTI oil futures rose 1.2% to a fresh 2/1/2 year high, now technically overbought. Fresh multi-year highs also in gold (+0.1%) and silver (+1.4%) boosted the CRB index to a fresh high, but copper (-3.5%) reversed sharply. US 10yr treasury yields reversed sharply from 3.55% around midday NY, coinciding with the fall in US equities, and are now 2bp lower at 3.47%. There was mixed Fedspeak from Lockhart (QE3 is possible), Evans (QE2 should not be curtailed), and Fisher (opposed to QE3 and QE2 could be curtailed). Moody's downgraded Greece three notches from Ba1 to B1, assigning a negative outlook. Its 10yr government bond yield rose 8bp to 12.33%, while the 2yr bond rose 41bp to 15.92% - a post-May high. Portugal's 10yr rose 8bp, near a decade high, but the other Eurozone peripherals were unruffled.

    The US dollar index is slightly higher, falling in London to a fresh four-month low but bouncing in NY, mirroring the decline in US equities. EUR rose to a four month high of 1.4036 during London's morning, but reversed all of that to 1.3960 in NY. GBP underperformed, falling further from its noon peak of 1.6340 to 1.6183, and forming a technically bearish key reversal pattern. Safe-haven yen outperformed, USD/JPY between 81.95 and 82.30.

    After peaking at 1.0186 midday London, pro-risk AUD fell sharply to 1.0091.

    NZD's fall from 0.7402 to 0.7350 was less severe, probably because much bad news has already been priced in. AUD/NZD made a fresh decade high of 1.3794 before falling to 1.3715.

    Fedspeak: QE3 can't be ruled out yet but QE2 may not be seen through to the end. Atlanta Fed president Lockhart says the Fed shouldn't rule out asset purchases beyond June: “given the emergence of new risks, I prefer a posture of [policy] fl exibility”. Meanwhile Dallas fed's Fisher remains doubtful about the effi cacy of QE2 and said he might vote to curtail it and would vote against extending or enlarging purchases “barring some frightful development”. Chicago Fed president Evans said the hurdle for altering the current program is pretty high.

    Euroland Sentix investor confi dence rose from 16.7 to 17.1 in Mar, the highest since 2007. Current conditions rose but expectations slipped, with rising oil prices cited as a driving factor.

    Canadian building permits fell 5.1% in Jan. The residential component was down 0.9% but non-res dropped by 13.2%.

    AUD/USD and NZD/USD outlook next 24 hours: AUD is starting to threaten the lower boundary of its multi-month consolidation, today's ceiling at 1.0200 with a move to 1.0030 more likely. NZD is again testing major support at 0.7350, a break lower likely, 0.7270 the next target.

    Events Today

    Feb NFIB Small Business Survey Mar IBD-TIPP Economic Optimism Feb Bank Lending (Adjusted) %yr RBA Assistant Governor Lowe speaking 

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    GBP Sinks as Andrew Sentance to be Replaced on MPC by Ben Broadbent

    The GBP slid in today's trading after it was announced that Ben Broadbent was appointed to the monetary policy committee (MPC) by the Treasury on Monday. Mr Broadbent will replace Andrew Sentance on the MPC, starting with the June meeting. Mr Sentance has been the most hawkish member of the MPC and has been called for and voting for a quarter point interest rate increase in the benchmark rate since last June. We saw that 2 other members have moved over to his view in the previous rate decision.

    Traders are pricing in a rate hike in May.

    Mr Broadbent is a private sector economist for Goldman Sachs and his views are less hawkish than that of Mr Sentance and makes the anticipated interest rate increase from the BoE less certain. Still, he has argued that there are good arguments for both sides of the debate within the MPC, and has a view that Britain is well placed to withstand the fiscal tightening that the country will go through with a damaging effect on the economy. That makes him have a pro-growth outlook for the UK.

    He sees plenty of scope for British consumers to increase spending and believes the depreciation of sterling will allow the economy to recover as the public finances are repaired.

    He sees the MPC perhaps a bit too worried about the health of the economy at the expense of inflation, but still, his view is not clearly as defined as that of Mr Sentance. Until we see which side of the debate he falls on, and which way he will vote, today's news was a negative for the GBP.

    Here is a collection of some more of Mr Broadbent's comments and views: Recent comments from BoE MPC nominee Broadbent

    Also over the weekend, we did have some rather alarming comments from BoE Governor King in which he said the seeds for another financial crisis are still there.

    From the Telegraph: Britain at risk of another financial crisis, Bank of England chief warns

    "When asked whether there could be a repeat of the financial crisis, Mr King says: "Yes. The problem is still there. The search for yield goes on. Imbalances are beginning to grow again." Mr King, who rarely gives interviews, suggests that the culture of short-term profits and bonuses within the banks may ultimately be responsible for the problems.

    The Governor's remarks are a warning to George Osborne, the Chancellor, as a government commission considers whether to force high street banks to sell off their investment banking arms. Mr Osborne is thought to be against such a plan, but Mr King is due to ultimately become responsible for banking regulation and his views are, therefore, critical."

    His comments were met with outrage and indignation by UK financial institutions, but more importantly will be the publishing of an interim report next month on whether to break up full-service banks.


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    Elliott Wave Trade Ideas Performance Update

    We bought EUR/JPY in early part of last week at 112.85 and the single currency found renewed buying interest at 112.54 and rallied from there throughout rest of the week, easily met our indicated upside target at 114.20 (with 135 points profit) and price eventually surged to as high as 116.00 on Friday before retreating.

    We sold the EUR/GBP after seeing the retreat from 0.8593, however, last week’s rebound from 0.8461 turned out to be stronger than expected and in view of the strength of the bounce from there,  we exited our short position entered at 0.8540 at 0.8550 and euro then rallied to as high as 0.8632 today.

    In aussie, we sold the pair at 1.0170 last week and price did retreat from 1.0189 to as low as 1.0075, however, the currency pair jumped again from there today, our lowered stop at 1.0160 was hit and the position was closed with 10 points profit.

    No position was entered in USD/CAD.

    In short, 3 positions were squared among the 4 currency pairs last week with a total profit of 135 points and the positions are listed below.


    1 Mar: EUR/JPY -  Long at 112.85, exited at 114.20  (+135 points)
    2 Mar: AUD/USD - Short at 1.0170, exited at 1.0160  (+ 10 points)
    3 Mar: EUR/GBP - Short at 0.8540, exited at 0.8550  (- 10 points)

                AUD        EURJPY      EURGBP       CAD
    Jan        -110           -65           +45         +162
    Feb         -12         +220           -17           +54    
    Mar         +10         +135          -10
    Apr
    May                 
    Jun       
    Jul       
    Aug       
    Sep       
    Oct       
    Nov       
    Dec                                                                 
    Y-T-D      -112         +290         +18          +216


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    Tuesday, March 8, 2011

    Foreign Exchange Market Commentary

    EUR/USD closed lower due to profit taking on Monday as it consolidates some of the rally off February's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bullish signalling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If it extends the rally off January's low, the 87% retracement level of the November-January decline crossing is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.

    USD/JPY closed slightly lower due to short covering on Monday as it consolidates some of last Thursday's rally. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI have turned bullish hinting that a short-term might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing would confirm that a short-term bottom has been posted. If it renews the decline off February's high, February's low crossing is the next downside target.

    GBP/USD closed lower due to profit taking on Monday and the low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish hinting that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the reaction low crossing are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If it extends the rally off December's low, weekly resistance crossing is the next upside target.

    USD/CHF posted an inside day with a higher close on Monday as it consolidates some of this winter's decline. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signalling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If it extends the aforementioned decline, downside targets will now be hard to project now that it has declined into uncharted territory. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing would confirm that a short-term bottom has been posted.


    View the original article here

    USDJPY - Vulnerable Despite Price Hesitation

    Daily Forex Technicals | Written by FXTechstrategy | Mar 08 11 03:32 GMT

    USDJPY – While USDJPY continues to look for a bottom, its overall long-term bearishness remains intact. Its positive monthly close in Jan'2011 was met with a failed rally at the 83.98 level to close Feb'2011 lower. This development leaves the pair putting pressure on the downside towards the 80.23 level, its 2010 low with a violation of that level putting the pair in a position to weaken further towards the 79.75 level, its April, 1995 low. Below that level if seen will set the stage for more downside towards the 78.00 and then the 76.00. However, in order for the pair to put its present downside vulnerability on hold, a break and hold above its Oct 2010 high at 84.47 must be established. This will pave the way for a retarget of the 85.92 level, its Sept 12'10 high and then the 87.57 level, its falling channel top. Over all, USDJPY remains biased to the downside long-term though struggling to trace out a bottom.above the 1.0253 level and beyond.

     

    Mohammed Isah
    Market Analyst
    http://www.fxtechstrategy.com/

    This report is prepared solely for information and data purposes. Opinions, estimates and projections contained herein are the author's own as of the date hereof and are subject to change without notice. The information and opinions contained herein have been compiled or arrived at from sources believed to be reliable but no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to their accuracy or completeness and neither the information nor the forecast shall be taken as a representation for which the author incur any responsibility. The does not accept any liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of this report or its contents. This report is not construed as an offer to sell or solicitation of any offer to buy any of the currencies referred to in this report


    View the original article here

    Market Morning Briefing

    EQUITIES

    The Dow (12090.03, -79.85, -0.66%) came off a decent bit yesterday and is coming close to testing important Support at 12000. If this holds, we would still target 12500-700 in the medium term.

    Asian indices are flat/ mixed, ranging between -0.28% (New Zealand) and +0.98% (Korea), possibly waiting for clues from the USA (as to whether the 12000 Support will hold or not) and from the Middle East, where Crude has cooled off a wee bit.

    The Sensex (18222.67) and Nifty (5463.15) might get bought on dips today as Crude is slightly lower and there are some chances of the Congress-DMK shaking hands again.

    COMMODITIES

    Crude (105.14) surged yesterday to a high of 106.95 and eased following a report from BBC that the Libyan leader might leave the country. Technically the charts are still looking strong with room for further rise to 110-112 in the coming days/weeks. Support is seen in 100-98 region.

    Gold (1432) tested its crucial 1445-1450 Resistance reigon and has come off from there slightly. As mentioned yesterday, 1445-50 is a very important Resistance region to watch and a break above it might take it further up towards 1475-1500. While 1450 holds, there is a chance of a fall to 1400-1370 once again. But it is too early to take a call on this and we will have to wait and see.

    Silver (35.72) has come off sharply from yesterday's high of 36.75. However, the Support at 35.50 is still holding and while above 35.50 the outlook remains bullish for further rise to 37+ levels.

    Copper (4.32) has failed to see a strong rise past 4.50 and has fallen sharply. With this sharp fall yesterday, Head and Shoulder pattern formation seen on the charts. A strong break below 4.25-20 region would confirm this. TO see the Head and Shoulder pattern on the Copper chart click on the following link:
    http://www.kshitij.com/graphgallery/coppercandle.shtml#candle

    CURRENCIES

    Slight recovery in the Dollar Index (76.52) from yesterday's low near 76.12, further rise possible. Sterling Pound (1.6196) has been the biggest loser, coming off from a high near 1.6341 on news that Feb Retail Sales did not do as well as Jan. Supports may be there in 1.6150-00 region.

    The Euro (1.3980) trades slightly lower compared to yesterday's high near 1.4036 and Dollar-Yen (82.28) has come up from yesterday's low of 81.95. Dollar-Swiss is steady near 0.9268 while the Aussie (1.0118) has bounced a little after falling sharply to 1.0090 overnight from yesterday's high near 1.0185. Thus, the Aussie has been the most volatile pair since yesterday. But, it has Support in the 1.0090-70 region.

    Overall, the Dollar is still very weak and might find short-term selling interest on rallies for a few more days. The underlying concern seems to be that the US is unlikely to raise rates whereas the Eurozone is more likely to.'

    In Asia, the Sing Dollar continues to trade strong near 1.2660. The Korean Won too is strong near 1116.40. Elsewhere in the world, the Russian Rouble (28.19) has seen strong gains over the last few months, with the USD-RUB coming down from 31.67 at the beginning of December. Dollar-Rupee has opened steady today at 45.0550/0650.

    INTEREST RATES

    The 3M USD LIBOR was unchanged at 0.31%. The 2Y and 10Y yields were up 1 bps and 3 bps each to quote at 0.70% and 3.51% respectively. The 10Y yield has very strong Resistance in 3.50-70 region and while it holds the yields can come down further to 3.20 in the coming days/weeks. To see the 10Y US Yield chart click on the following link:
    http://www.kshitij.com/graphgallery/usdsin92.shtml#sin92


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    Daily Financial Market Outlook

    Daily Forex Fundamentals | Written by Lloyds TSB | Mar 08 11 05:11 GMT

    The eurozone will remain at centre stage today, with sovereign debt problems in the periphery taking prominence over further positive economic data from Germany. Moody's downgraded Greece's sovereign rating three notches to B1 yesterday, pushing the cost of insuring Greek sovereign debt to a record high and putting upward pressure on bond yields and CDS throughout the region. Portugal's 10-year bonds hit a high of 7.5% and spreads with German bunds widened, sparking speculation that it could be close to asking for official financial support. The concern has to be that critical meetings scheduled for March 11 and on March 24 and 25 may fail to deliver the widely hoped ‘catch all' solution to the debt problems, leading to a raft of sovereign rating downgrades and a further sell-off in related bond markets. The current uncertainty will provide an interesting backdrop to presentations by the ECB's Nowotny and Weber this morning.

    Data from Germany this morning are poised to highlight the stark divergence in economic prospects, with factory orders forecast to rebound by 2.2% in January after a weather-related 3.4% drop in December. However, the annual growth rate will slow to 15.5%, from 19.7% in December, highlighting just how strong momentum was at the start of last year. The difference now is that the benefits of the export-based recovery are increasingly spreading to the domestic economy, providing the basis for more sustainable growth. The January industrial output figures are released tomorrow.

    In other events, the UK DMO will sell £0.8bn of index-linked 2042 bonds this morning, while the US Treasury will issue $32bn of 3-year notes this afternoon.

    Chart: German manufacturing sector remains buoyant as global recovery sustains

     

    Lloyds TSB Bank

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    The Daily Wave Analysis

    Currency pair USD/CHF

    It is not excluded, that the wave and of (iv) is already generated. If the assumption is true, it is possible to expect local growth of the price as the impulse or the Diagonal Triangle with of (iv).

    Currency pair EUR/USD

    Presumably, the wedge (i) of [iii] the complete. If the assumption is true, it is possible to expect reduction of price as formation of the correctional wave (ii) of [iii].

    Currency pair GBP/USD.

    Presumably, the complet the wave (x) of [ii], also formation of the wave (y) of [ii] has already begun. Probably, it will take the form of the simple Zigzag within the limits of which development it is possible to expect the further reduction of price

    Currency pair USD/JPY.

    Probably, the wave [z] of 4 becomes the double (threefold) Zigzag, in which frameworks, the complet the wave (x) of [z]. If the assumption is true, it is possible to expect growth of the price as formation of the wave (y) of [z].


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    Daily Forex Update: GBP/CHF

    GBP/CHF is continuing the prevailing downtrend inside the high Quality Descending Triangle chart pattern, identified by Autochartist on the daily charts. The Quality of this chart pattern is rated at the 7 bar level as a result of the low Initial Trend (measured at the 1 bar level) and near maximum Uniformity and Clarity (both rated at the 9 bar level). High Uniformity and Clarity describe a well-formed chart pattern developing smoothly in accordance with the prevailing down-trend visible on the daily and the weekly charts. The first and the second connecting points of the lower support line of this chart pattern stand at the B level of the preceding ABC correction to the previous longer-term downward impulse. This level should be broken for the down trend to continue

    Autochartist has also identified another high Quality chart pattern, Flag, on the 240-minute GBP/CHF chart. The Quality of this Flag is rated at the 8 bar level. The upper resistance trend line of this chart pattern can be used for opening sell entries in accordance with the prevailing downtrend, protected with a close stop-loss above.


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    Japan Recorded It First Trade Deficit Since 23 Month During January

    Daily Forex Fundamentals | Written by ecPulse.com | Mar 08 11 03:35 GMT

    The Japanese economy has recorded a relatively noticeable trade deficit during the start of the current year which is considered to be the first since 23 months, due to a considerable yet not high decrease in export rates, where the export rates increased by 2.9% and imports increased by 15.6%.

    Elaborating more on the current trade deficit that occurred in January, The Japanese Economy released today data on the total current account, total adjusted current account and the Trade balance during the month of January. The actual reading of the total current account showed a value of 461.9 billion yen compared to the previous reading of 1,195.3 billion yen forecasted to be 470.0 billion yen.

    Where as the actual reading of the total adjusted current account came out at 1,089.2 billion yen compared to the previous reading of 1,555.9 billion yen revised to 1,518.6 billion yen forecasted to be 1,167.0 billion yen. The actual reading of the Trade balance showed a deficit 394.5 billion yen compared to the previous surplus reading of 768.8 billion yen forecasted to show a deficit of 371.8 billion yen.

    It is worth mentioning that the decrease in exports is mainly related to the holiday celebrations of the lunar New Year in both China and South Korea, backed up with financial analysts stating that trade surplus will gain it is strength after this occasion. It is also believed that the GDP will also gain it is strength during this quarter after the drop in export rates has caused an economical contraction.

    One of the main importers of Japanese products is the US, there fore it is also worth mentioning that the Jobless rates in the US has dropped by 8.9% during February which is considered to be the lowest in two years, where the American companies has added 192,000 new jobs supporting the growing confidence of the American economical recovery, which one way or another could have affected the Japanese export rates.

    Taking a glimpse at the Chinese economy, the Chinese economy is experiencing high inflation rates which negatively affect the Chinese standard of living, which enforce the Chinese government to hike interest rate twice this current year which could cool down the GDP rate during the first half of the year.

    Since China is considered to be the largest trading partner to Japan; any drop in the Chinese demand will have a negative impact on the Japanese export rates.

    The unstable economical and political conditions in the Middle East caused considerable fluctuations oil prices, which might have a negative affect on the Japanese exports

     

    Ecpulse

    Disclaimer: The content of ecPulse.com and any page in the website contain information for investors/traders and is not a recommendation to buy or sell currencies, stocks, gold, silver & energies, nor an offer to buy or sell currencies, stocks, gold, silver & energies. The information provided reflects the writers' opinions that deemed reliable but is not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. ecPulse is not liable for any losses or damages, monetary or otherwise that result. I recommend that anyone trades currencies, stocks, gold, silver & energies should do so with caution and consult with a broker before doing so. Prior performance may not be indicative of future performance. Currencies, stocks gold, silver &energies presented should be considered speculative with a high degree of volatility and risk


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    FX Technical Commentary

    Initial support at 1.3833 (Mar 3 low) followed by 1.3744 (Mar 2 low). Initial resistance is now located at 1.4086 (Nov 8 high) followed by 1.4282 (Nov 4 high)

    Initial support is located at 81.73 (Mar 3 low) followed by 81.13 (Feb 4 low). Initial resistance is now at 83.07 (Mar 4 high) followed by 83.98 (Feb 16 High).

    Initial support at 1.6151 (61.8% retrace of 1.6031-1.6344) followed by 1.6072 (Feb 28 low). Initial resistance is now at 1.6344 (March 2 low) followed by 1.6458 (Jan 19, 2010 high).

    Initial support at 1.0076 (Mar 4 low) followed by the 1.0002 (Feb 24 low). Initial resistance is now at 1.0202 (Mar 1 high) followed by 1.0256 (Dec 31 high).

    Initial support at 1409 (Mar 1 low) followed by 1389 (Feb 21 low). Initial resistance is now at 1450 (psychological resistance) followed by 1458 (1410.32 plus 1392.65-1440.32).

    Initial support at 105.00 (Intraday Support) followed by 103.50 (Intraday Support). Initial resistance is now at 106.50 (Feb Spike High) followed by 108.00 (Big Figure resistance).

    CurrencySup 2Sup 1SpotRes 1Res 2

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    EUR/GBP – Potential Bearish Flag And ABCD Pattern

    FX Solutions

    IMPORTANT NOTICE: These comments are for information purposes only. Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results. Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and Foreign Exchange involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time. The information contained on this email does not constitute a solicitation to buy or sell by FX Solutions,LLC., and/or its affiliates, and is not to be available to individuals in a jurisdiction where such availability would be contrary to local regulation or law.

    (Chart courtesy of FX Solutions' FX AccuCharts. Price on 1st pane, Slow Stochastics on 2nd pane; uptrend lines in green; downtrend lines in red; horizontal support/resistance lines in yellow; 200-period simple moving average in light blue.)


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    Monday, March 7, 2011

    The Daily Forecaster: GBPUSD

    Price: 1.6201

    Bias: Watch the 1.6263-76 resistance area - which could cap for further losses

    The underlying MT direction is neutral while the daily bias is neutral. Therefore it may be better to sit out of the market or trade breaks when supported by bullish or bearish set up patterns. It is advisable to study both lower and higher time frame charts for evidence to support a trade in either direction It may well be advisable to take profits when seen or if there is a larger break out to consider using a trailing stop to protect profits

    Consider buy set ups at: 1.6285

    Consider sell set ups at: 1.6260-80 or 1.6160

    Daily Outlook

    We saw break above the1.6282 high which saw follow-through to just below 1.6343 high before much stronger losses. At this point I feel we may have found an intermediate low, though should allow for 1.6164. I feel a pullback is due that should return back to the 1.6263-76 resistance area which I feel should cap for additional losses. From the pullback or a direct loss of 1.6160 look for follow-through below 1.6138 and 1.6115 and towards the 1.6056-96 area. I somehow doubt we'll see this today but should hold on first test.

    Only an earlier break above 1.6285 would imply a return back towards 1.6295-05 - still take care there and at 1.6319. Only above the 1.6343 high would force a stronger rally.

    Medium Term Outlook

    7th March:

    This lack of upside momentum is not at all conducive to the bullish structure I had been contemplating and I feel there is a growing risk of a larger daily sideways consolidation developing. However, even within this there is still upside potential so there is a dilemma as to how price should unfold in the meantime. If this consolidation scenario is correct the problem with it will be the raised level of volatility and erratic behavior. Thus I feel until some short term developments come to fruition it will be best to hold back from strong directional committments.


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