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Tuesday, March 8, 2011

Foreign Exchange Market Commentary

EUR/USD closed lower due to profit taking on Monday as it consolidates some of the rally off February's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bullish signalling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If it extends the rally off January's low, the 87% retracement level of the November-January decline crossing is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.

USD/JPY closed slightly lower due to short covering on Monday as it consolidates some of last Thursday's rally. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI have turned bullish hinting that a short-term might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing would confirm that a short-term bottom has been posted. If it renews the decline off February's high, February's low crossing is the next downside target.

GBP/USD closed lower due to profit taking on Monday and the low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish hinting that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the reaction low crossing are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If it extends the rally off December's low, weekly resistance crossing is the next upside target.

USD/CHF posted an inside day with a higher close on Monday as it consolidates some of this winter's decline. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signalling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If it extends the aforementioned decline, downside targets will now be hard to project now that it has declined into uncharted territory. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing would confirm that a short-term bottom has been posted.


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